The 2008 Crush...a paradox for Paso Robles AVA

In the Steve Heimoff blog from one week ago, "Observations of the 2008 final grape crush," several interesting statistics were discussed. First was that the 2008 crop in tons, essentially equaled the 2007 crop, and second, that in terms of tons crushed/ variety, Cabernet Sauvignon was only ranked 4th, behind Chardonnay, Thompson's seedless(yes, that's right), and Zinfandel. As an aside, Napa Cab grapes price increased only 5%.

These are statewide stats which afford an overview of the 2008 crush. If one were to ask any of my Paso Robles neighbors, however, one would get an entirely different picture than the statewide results. Quite frankly, I was stunned by them; the following is a response to the Steve Heimoff Blog:

Altho I tend to be a lumper rather than a splitter, "lumping" is a bit difficult when looking at grape reports. Just as individual vineyards may have totally different microclimates from a vineyard two hills over, price of grapes/Ton really should be split up between high end (low yield Tons/acre) and lower end (high yield Tons/acre). There is a grower 50 miles east of Paso Robles who several years ago sold his grapes exclusively into the Japanese market, and got only $300/Ton for his Cab. However, he machine pre-prunes, machine harvests, AND hangs 12(yes, twelve) Tons/acre. He was happy as a clam with that in that his per acre costs ran about only $150/Ton. We, and many folks around us in the Templeton Gap area of southern Paso Robles AVA, hang Cab between 1-2.5 Tons/acre, and garner $31oo/Ton for Cab and up. Pinot Noir in the cool to cold valleys of the Templeton Gap last year sold from between $3000 to $3500/Ton, and in the south county of SLO, I heard of $4000 to $4500/Ton( tho this is NOT first hand knowledge).

So not only location, but also grower mentality(ie, high yield vs low) plays a big part in this. That is what makes the crush totals so tough to interpret. Frankly, it would be very helpful if the crush totals broke down the yields into under 3T/acre and over 3T/acre. Some of us nutty people hang 1-2.5 Tons/acre, but that is where great wines come from. Real terroir, incidentally, generally tends to be found in the lower yielding vineyards. Obviously this is a generality, but it holds pretty much true. As for our Paso Robles AVA, our average yields were 50% of normal last year, in large part due to a week in mid May of 105 -110 degrees, followed by May 21st with a 115 degree day...unfortunately, this occurred in the middle of bloom, which literally "cooked off" the unopened flower buds.

Also factored into the crush stats would have to be the high density plantings, eg.,

2300 vines/acre vs. 870 vines/acre on a traditional 5' X 10' planting. Here, lbs of fruit/vine would make a lot more sense to quantify, in that some vines may only have a handful of clusters/ vine. Crush stats do have their value, but one does have to know what exactly all the parameters are...which in some cases may skew the information so that it doesn't make sense.

The Pouring Trip: A micro look at wine sales

Before the Storm, Cerro Prieto Vineyard, Spring 2008

We are just back from our first pouring trip, and it was an eye opener. Following our first bottling several months ago, we were anxious to get our new, 1Ton/acre wines "out there", convinced that once someone tries them, the wines will sell themselves. Starting a new venture into the teeth of the worst recession since the 1930's, we pressed ahead, anxious, but nonetheless, optimistic. "Always room at the top", as the saying goes. We had an excellent product, and priced it fairly, taking 25% off the top just because of the financially chaotic times. People want...people demand and deserve true quality at an affordable price. That is our niche and we believe we have filled it.

We concentrated on the upper end wine market in North County area of San Diego, meshing a post-op check up at UCSD med center with some wine pouring. What we saw was a bit surprising: In the area we visited, there is still a bunch of money being spent at large, up-scale shopping centers, but we were wine-centric and found interesting tidbits of info.

First of all the wine industry is not dead, nor is it on life support. It has, however, shut down at the upper price end, even in extremely wealthy areas. The most common comment in some very nice wine shops, wine bars, and restaurants was that there is a cap on what consumers will pay. Wine bars for the 20-30 yr old crowd are selling lots of wine, but it just doesn't sell much over 20 to 30 bucks. Yes, many have the higher end wines in stock, but as several sellers mentioned:

"Over a hundred bucks, and nobody is buying".

It seems retailers have seen a $100 cap on bottles, and their really high-end Napa stuff had just been sitting on the shelf for some 9-12 months. While waiting to chat with one wine shop owner, I watched a customer fill 3 cases with Spanish and Argentine wines, all in the $7-$10 range. He was putting on a party and obviously was shopping for value, with Tempranillos, Malbecs, and the like. His comment was, "This Spanish and Argentine stuff is a great deal".

We were waiting in line to show our wares, a $39 Cerro Prieto Merlot and our signature blend,

$49 Cerro Prieto Paso Bordo(85% Cab/ 15% Syrah), when we overheard part of a conversation between two Napa reps and the store owner. Gist of the conversation was that the fellow from Napa was putting the hard sell on the owner for some pretty pricey wines(Cabs, Syrah, blends) and the owner wasn't too happy about it. My wife commented that we would be facing a tough sell. The owner had a mask-like countenance and said nary a word to the reps.

When our turn came, the owners came over to us, we had a nice conversation, and they truly seemed to enjoy our wines. We don't know if we made a sale, but we did make good contacts, and witnessed first hand that even in tony high end neighborhoods, $100 is the max that wine drinkers will pay. However, the average customer is counting his nickels, and is buying quality, much of it from the Argentine and Espana. At true wine bars, clientele seemed to be younger, and again, drank with passion...at $5 to $7 / glass, and happy hour was full...but later was nowhere near as busy.

Fine restaurants in the area were also hurting, with traffic down by 20-30% or more (their own words), and wines at dinner were mainly based on value, not brand. If folks were drinking, it was not only yummy, but it was good value. $30 to $50 bottles were sold, but more often a glass at

$7 to $12 was sold rather than a bottle over $40. Mind you, this area had a jam-packed parking lot full of BMWs, Mercedes, and Lexus' but even the well-to-do were watching their wine spending.

Less exclusive wine bars did land office happy hour business, but with wine at 4 to 5 bucks/glass.

So people out of the Napa area are buying...just not their stuff. Also, no question some eateries have closed down. One wine shop was now serving high-end wine/food dinners to try and attract back their clientele. There were lots of long faces on this trip, and a lot of folks really struggled to sell wine. High-end places were selling low cost value wines to try and capture the market.

Here at home, in the Paso Robles area, the situation mimics the pricey areas in SD: good but lower cost Spanish and Argentine wines mixed with inexpensive local wines, but high end just isn't happening. Restaurants serving food comparable to San Francisco cuisine are moving higher end wines; still, there seems to be an aversion to wines much over $100. Gourmet dinners may have an $80 or $90 bottle sitting on the table, but $40 to $70 bottles are more likely.

At the end of the day, our trip was a start, not a success. We are waiting on some retailers, but are hopeful only. This is a tough market, no matter how you slice it. Right now, the demand is for great quality at an affordable price. Sound familiar?

(The above article appeared as a guest piece yesterday in the Wine Sooth, an excellent blog by Art Przebinda.)

Vineyard Tours at Cerro Prieto Vineyard & Cellars

(Eco) Vineyard Tours at Cerro Prieto
By Appt: 805-226-8448/ cell: 674-0826
email: pasodocwine@yahoo.com
Fee: $25/ person for 30-45 minute tours. (longer tours available by special request)
Includes Eco measures discussion and demonstration, PLUS:
Identification of different varietals by leaves and their grape clusters
Pruning and thinning: everything you ever wanted to know and more, with demonstration (seasonal)
Walk, ride thru vineyard and several miles of trails in 6 X 6(when available---this is a working vineyard)
Walk thru rows with cover crop, flora, and fauna identification, wildflower tour(spring), fern grotto
Demonstration of irrigation and fertigation
Learn about erosion control in a straight up/ down vineyard setting; learn about terracing
Demonstration of bud break, bloom, and fruit set(March, April, May)
Verasion demonstration(in season), and significance
Brix demonstration with grape tasting(Sept/Oct)
Harvest tours(Sept/ Oct)
Fossils/ geography/ topography tour and discussion of soil types and significance
Bird identification: these birds have all been identified in our vineyard
Hawks: Redtail, Peregrine, Red Shouldered, Cooper’s, Kestrel, Sharp shinned hawk
Owls: Barn owl, Great Horned owl, and Western Screech owl(night-time only)
Birds: Blue Jays, (Western and Stellar’s) Black-headed Grosbeak, Dark-eyed Junco, Bullock’s Oriole,
Flycatchers (Ash-throated, Olive-sided), Anna and Allen’s Hummingbirds, Quail, Dove,
Towhees(California and Spotted), Western Meadowlark, Band-tailed Pigeon, Titmouse,
Swallows( Barn, Cliff, and Violet Green), Woodpeckers(Downy and Nuttall’s),
Finches, (Purple and House), Sparrows( White-crowned and Song), Red-breasted Sapsucker,
Merriam’s and Rio Grande turkeys(early morning first light only)
Demonstration of grape protection from varmints and birds( netting, bird distress calls, hawk calls)

Whether/ Weather, part 2

Vineyardists know this, but for those of you not viticulturally inclined: the significance of two weeks of summer in the middle of winter is twofold:

Should that January warm spell cause bud break to advance two weeks, that is not good news for inland valleys or low lying areas. The reason is that late spring frosts are not uncommon in these lower lying areas, and if bud break is moved up two weeks, those buds/ blooms are more susceptible to a late spring freeze.

Contrarily, if the warm January followed by warm spring days (but standard cold nites) causes bud break to be retarded for several weeks, that could conceivably delay ripening by two weeks, which could then cause hanging grapes to be subject to early fall frosts. Which way the bizarre January weather is going to affect things, I don't have a clue. But it will affect either an early bloom with potential for late spring frost damage, or it will affect a late harvest with early fall frost damage to grapes. The optimist in me says neither of these will happen. The realist says it probably will, one way or the other.

Whether the Weather

"Spring is sprung, fall is fell, March is here and it's hotter than ...usual." You all have heard that old one before, but as a matter of fact, the weather is, well, puzzling. From second week in January to first in February, we had temps off my back deck in the high 80's, average about 85. In January, for cripes sakes. What in the world is going on? We had 2 inches of rain post harvest, two more in December, then two inches twice in January. February we had another two, and now in March, another two. That is a grand total of 12, and we are getting near the "no more rain period" around these Paso Robles parts. At the 25 mile long Lake Nacimiento, just to the west of Paso, the lake is down below 25% of capacity, with many areas looking like mud bowls.

Okay, what does this mean? Well, the summertime temps in January were a bit scary for encouraging vines to swell their buds, just prior to budding out. Then came a cold snap in Feb, and now nites here remain in the mid to low 30's. It looks like a usual bud break time will occur, but inland valleys will be very prone to late spring freezes...again. As for the third year of drought, any dry farmed fruit on westside, or eastside, can count on being 50% or less. If we have another 12 inches of rain, then all bets are off. Obviously for drip irrigated vineyards, we can make up for the insufficient rain, but that means starting to water now. For us, not a huge expense, but for 400 acres, or 2000 acres, we are talking serious bucks. Generally it seems, most folks are keeping their powder dry and are hoping for more rain. Problem is if you wait too long, it may not do you that much good. Some neighbors have watered, but to date, most have not.

Last year we ended up 50% light in our Cab, Syrah, and Merlot blocs. The 5 incredible days of 105 to 110 degrees around May 15th were highlighted by 115 degrees on May 21st in our vineyard. That is no typo. At that point we were half way thru bloom, and half the tiny buds that give way to blooms were still closed up. At 115 degrees, unopened buds just literally popped, like popcorn, and blazooey, there goes the crop, Martha. The icing on the cake...literally...came June 2nd when we hit 24 degrees in our valley vineyard. By then, tho, the damage was done. I think the late frost down low was just someone sticking a stick in our eye, just to rub it in.

What does all that mean for this year? OnlyLord almighty knows. But weird weather like summer in January usually portends some other freakish weather happenings, and most end up not being favorable. One thing we will do for certain is to not prune our valley vineyard until the last moment before bud break. When the buds are really swollen we will prune then. Just guessing , but I have a feeling that the 2 week summer in mid winter will push everything back two weeks, and that includes bud break, bloom, and verasion. Sure, things may just proceed as usual, but the last several years we have seen weather nobody has found in their vineyard journal logs before. Somehow, that's what this year feels like, but, of course, it is not certain.

One thing I do believe in and that is the pendulum theory. We have had bizarre weather starting with the big, dark, wet in 2005, followed by strange runs of unseasonably hot weather in cold weather times for 2006, 2007, and 2008. Maybe the pendulum is going to swing back and bring us more of the routine most of us are used to. But if it hits 115 in May during bloom again, look for me to take up raising peanuts in Georgia. My bet, tho, is that the pendulum will swing back and bless us with normal bud and bloom weather...I hope.

Wine Storage 101 or, how to store your wine

Steve Heimoff (Steve Heimoff Wine Blog) wrote an interesting and entertaining blog on Shipping and Harmful Temperatures, yesterday, which was delightfully well timed. This morning I dropped off our newly released 2006 Cerro Prieto Merlot & 2006 Paso Blend(Paso Bordo/ 85% Cab & 15% Syrah) to favorite physician colleagues at the local hospital/ medical suites. One of my favorite people and physicians here, loves gourmet food as well as great wine. Just for completeness I mentioned that these wines were best when stored at 56-64 degrees, served at 70-72 , and decanted 10-15 minutes before drinking. This is a knowledgeable physician, enjoys good wines, but I think she was a bit surprised by the advice.

Same happened when I delivered a pair of bottles to a colleague at a nearby medical suite. "Really", was his response. These are both smart people who enjoy a fine meal and great wine. Yet, I really wonder if they ever actually were told exactly how to enjoy their wine to the max.

If you are a non-believer, who enjoys good wine, but do not care for it appropriately, you are going to get maybe as little as half (or less) enjoyment out of your wine as you would if it were handled with care and in a proper fashion. Some years back, I wondered if one of my favorite wineries had taken a leap off a high cliff, in that their product had fallen severely from my favor. Now, I wonder if maybe that had to do with shipping in hot weather,(which it is here, frequently, in summer), did they get a new winemaker?(no), or could it possibly have been heat damaged in shipment or perhaps in storage. My personal experience and that of others, is that whereas you may lose an occasional bottle to being "corked", I bet a person loses a heckuva lot more wine to improper storage during shipping or improper storage at home.

The business about serving at room temperature? Well, our wines at 64 degrees are flat. Really, flat. Get them up to 70-72, and they literally come alive, right up your proboscis(nose)... proboscitory delight, if you will. Both our wines have huge, beautiful boquets, but if not decanted for 10 minutes, or if served cool, one will miss half of what our wines have to offer. I do have a few friends who prefer their red wines cool. Nothing wrong with that...it is a matter of taste. But I would go a step further and say they are enjoying half, (or less) of what they could have enjoyed had they decanted and served at room temp.

My grandmother Berry, from Bordeaux, was a marvellous cook and served wine with all meals, usually a tad on the cool side. To this day it was my favorite wine ever, and it was just poured from a barrel into 4 decanters and placed in the center of the table with standard French fare. I will relate more of this story, an entire blog in itself, at at later time. Point is that the wine was spectaculo-fabuloso, but it was served a bit cool. I have wondered at times, if it could possibly have been even more impressive had it been served at room temp. Ah, that was a long ago time, so I'll never know. But this I do know: serving reds at room temp with adequate decanting, after proper storage at 56-64, gives the wine drinker the maximum pleasure that he/she will get from drinking wine. Anyone who doesn't know this or rather doesn't believe it, will be in for a pleasant surprise if they change their ways to the recommendations mentioned above.

Low Yield vs. High Yield

Generally, if one were to come upon this choice, the answer would be high yield and the topic would almost certainly relate to yields on CDs, Treasuries, or high grade Bonds. Yet, in the wine sphere, and particularly in the vineyard( and later in the barrel), low yielding vines have high yielding vines outclassed hands down, when it comes to caliber of, or quality of wine grapes. Don't get me wrong...there are grape growers out there who have land flat as a billiard table, machine hedge, machine pick, produce 10-12 Tons/ acre, and sell exclusively into the Japanese market. No one reading this blog would be interested, (even out of curiousity) what those grapes, and more importantly, what those wines tasted like. I could guess, but that just sends shivers up and down my spine.

More to the point, there still remain proponents of "There is no difference in grape tasting nor in wine tasting of yields of 3Tons/ acre vs yields of 5 Tons/ acre". Some stretch that to 6Tons rather than 5, and swear up and down that there is no difference. Well, maybe so, but in our vineyard I have experimented with 5 Tons/acre vs 3Tons, 2.5Tons, and 1 Ton/acre yields;
and I can tell you that only somebody with burned out taste buds would make the assertion that 3 Ton yields make no better wines than 5 Ton yields. That is just patently absurd, but that doesn't mean there isn't a coterie of folks out there who don't truly believe it. There is a difference between 3T/ acre and 2.5 Ton/acre, but it is, to my taste buds, ever so slight. 1Ton/acre is certainly better yet, but not three times better...it is just better. Unfortunately, it is also economically not feasible unless a vineyard is planted 23oo vines/ acre or as many as 4000 vines/acre. Once you start doing that tho, special equipment is necessary, again neatly overly priced, and pretty soon only a multi-millionaire could afford to farm that kind of operation.

Back to reality, most vineyards are planted somewhere between 870 vines/acre and 740 vines/acre(spacing of 5'X 10' and 5'X 12' , respectively). A 3Ton/acre vineyard on 5'x 10' planting means about 6 lbs of grapes/vine; our Cab averages .3 lbs/cluster and 8 to 10 spurs/vine, with 2 shoots/ spur. Allow 1 cluster/shoot, and you should have somewhere between
16 to 20 clusters/vine. Allowing for dropping any cluster that touches another, we end up somewhere between 4.8 and 6.0 lbs/vine. This spacing allows air to circulate in and thru the entire cluster, as well as allowing maximal amount of light to all parts of the cluster. These two issues can determine whether a cluster ripens fully thru and thru, vs just ripening on the outer portion of the cluster. Also consider that where air and light can get to and thru a cluster, one will need less fungicide or pesticide, because dense, damp, unlit areas do not occur(or certainly occur less frequently) for these unencumbered clusters.

Now imagine 5-6 Tons/acre vines, still with 5'X10' spacing, and what you have is twice as many clusters in the same space, with cluster overlap, poor venting of air around the cluster, and a large portion of the outer cluster that never sees the light of day. Immediately the chance of mildew or mold goes up, the need for fungicides increases, and the chance of all these grapes ripening anywhere nearly as well as vines with half that load, is slim at best. To me this pretty well ends the argument, and tasting grapes as well as the wines from each lot, confirms it.

5Ton/acre wines will taste herbaceous, or green, if you will, and should you like your wine to taste like green peppers, or salad, then this is the choice for you. Additionally, the tannins in Cab grown thus will be harsh and distasteful. What's really interesting, is that there are vineyard consultants out there advising growers, who are wedded to the idea if 3 Tons/ acre is good, then 5 Tons/ acre is better. I have had this conversation with many grape growers, and it is not one I can easily win. After all, 5 Tons/acre makes more money than 3Tons/acre, so the farmer sees it as thus.

Here, I lay some of the blame for higher yielding vineyards squarely on the doorstep of wineries. If they want high end wines, they necessarily should be using low yield grapes. A high foot traffic location can convince a vintner he can skate with 5-6Ton/ acre grapes, and still sell a lot of wine. Frankly, this is a black eye for the wine industry, grape farmers and vintners both. It is a practice which can lower the AVA's reputation for producing excellent wines and grapes. Oddly, some wineries still do not subscribe to low yields equal excellent wines equation, but sooner or later someone is going to tell those folks that "the emperor is wearing no clothes".

So, "low yields equal great wines" is the way to go with respect to crop loads, but that assumes everything else is equal and is done in the proper fashion. "A great wine starts in the vineyard", is a very old mantra, and crop loads play a large part of that. Nonetheless, terroir, individual vine attention, proper nutrition of vines, water needs, climatic conditions, hang time...there are more, many more considerations in making a great wine. Simple truths still hold true. Paying attention to them is essential for every vintner. As the years roll by, I firmly believe the high yield theory will relate to CDs and bonds...not crop loads for grapes and fine wines.